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Surf the waves of investor emotions

Surf the waves of investor emotions

GOLD (US$/OZ) TVC:GOLD

There all all these stages, 14 in total, but this is too detailled. Good to know and try to guess but no one is going to get them right.
It is better and more accurate to see the market in 4 cycles, or 6 if we separate the top & bottom.

Market participants go through those emotions every time, with stocks, gold , crypto.
Speculation in currencies and commodities actually serves a purpose, I would not describe market movements the same way (except precious metals).

Let me describe every emotion, starting with a trending bull market:

1-
Optimism:
The market is clearly in a bull market. Investors think the market is likely to continue higher.
Excitement: As more investors notice the uptrend, it keeps going up, probably faster. Investors get positive confirmation bias & expect more gains.
Thrill: Every one is a pro and they start making big calls, stop acting reserved/respectfully. Bulls start to celebrate. Bears are disgusted.

2-
Euphoria:
Day traders & Mainstreet are fully invested. Forums & investing sites get record new accounts. Everyone is a genius calling for the moon.

3-
Denial:
"It's ok we need to cool off". Investors start calling themselves long term investors that do not care about noise.
Anxiety: Bagholders, which is the right description by now, start to really worry. The price is not going higher, the "pullback" lasted long.
Fear: The price starts to go down, losses accelerate. Bears start saying "told you so" and bagholders get triggered very easilly.

4-
Desperation:
"Pff I hope you're happy". Baggies finally start to call it a bear market. Bulls see no light at the end of the tunnel.
Panic: Bulls that saw light at the end of the tunnel realize it was a freight train. Losses start getting felt. Fund clients harass PMS.
Capitulation: Gordon Brown, head of Her Majesty's Treasury, "rebalances" and sells the bottom. Bulls cannot take it anymore.

5-
Depression:
hopelessness - despair - nooses. Bears are empowered, forgetting they are permabears. A few will feel regret and buy at euphoria.

6-
Skepticism:
Investors gave up trying to time the market. They got slapped many times and are now cautious. Bad time for any short term strategies.
Hope: They allow themselves to think the worse might be over, and day dream about new highs, but still very reluctant to buy (10/10 logic).
Relief: Many investors are back in the green, or around breakeven, and the "scary prices" are now far behind. The pain is over they can breathe.



A few practical examples

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People are calling the top on tech stocks and calling it euphoria. It is BIG euphoria, not small 1/14 euphoria yet, prob.
Once we go higher, when the REAL crash begins, gamblers will go "last time they said", "I held the dip in the second half of 2020 every one was calling the crash", and so on. The clowns such as "captain of the ship" Dave Portnoy will get all these confirmation bias, he will probably end up rekt in the end.

At this point the stock market has become a ponzi scheme. Grandma and 20 year olds will hear that some random idiot with no experience got rich, so hey they can do it too, and every ignorant beginner will join and be euphoric for a few weeks, then depressed for a few months.

Late buyers will think Portnoy is an "OG" and the new Warren Buffet, I will point out his flaws and laugh at the "master the legend", I will be mocked and his fanboys will flame me, call me jealous, "why attack him? I made lots of money thanks to him".
And then I will be proven right as always, and the "OGS" will vanish away.

EVERY.
SINGLE.
TIME.

I'll try some small buys on the way up, short sell at 20k and skrekt every one as usual. Not sure with these annoying US tax rules.


Some other ones than stocks. Already have one for BTC so no point making it again

Timely market cycle update: The end of an ERA & start of a new.

You sort of always find more or less the same thing.

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In Forex this does not happen the same, I have my own dynamic ever changing way to divide market cycles, does not always work, nice when it does.


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Gold is a bit of both world. Depends the TF.

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Bouncing from a level to another

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This is how I see it for forex, 80% of the time just stay away but who cares, there are plenty of pairs and you can also watch a secondary asset class ( commodities are the most similar thing).
And 20% of the time be picky, go for the good stuff. Not that complicated. Seems silly to be zooming in intensly. Days to weeks holding periods is considered short term. I do short to very short term already, but compared to the average retail trader I'm like a dinosaur that holds forever.
It is just ridiculous. There is no supply and demand laws it's all noise. What do they think they are? Manual quants? Don't most quants trade stocks? Aren't most professional fx "day traders" just bankers with insider info that cheat and scam retail of their savings? Legally...

I crack up imagine the average week end gambler with his chart full of ridiculous indicators on a 5 minutes time frame with huge spreads in some choppy random market try so hard to find something why oh why?
The goal clearly is not money. So what is it? A challenge? Sure might find something. And I might get a stronger arm if I keep hitting my nuts with a hammer . "Well if it works for you".

The goal is actually money. Ridiculous. That there are so many jokers that think they will make MORE money, not LESS. Like they'll make 1% a day gambling on noise.
I find the idea of day trading absolutely repulsive: waking up at 7, drinking his little coffee , looking at his little charts, taking some gamble at a huge cost, then getting out pumpus interuptus closing everything at 4 pm or something while the market is still active and just going to watch tv and proud of his day patting himself on the back totally oblivious of how stupid he looks, a sheep that got brainwashed by brokers. Beurk.

Day traders equivalent to lifting are crossfitters with their little tight green and yellow outfits, elastic bands around the head and arms and legs, little crossfit water bottle, and little 2 kg pink or green or blue dumbbells, training their injuries, lifting their little weights, making sure they stop before failure wouldn't want to hurt yourself princess. I want to throw up.
Day traders are to Forex what Slipknot is to technical death metal fans.
Lmao just hunting for some silly pattern they read somewhere and of course didn't bother to backtest because nah that would be too much hard work.
Calling themselves speculators because they have several screens 🤢
And you can't even mock them because by the time you say "haha told you" they already blew up and quit.

This isn't stupid?
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A big watchlist = ignore 80% of the lesser PA. Pick only the juiciest berries.
There isn't much to it. Looking at the random noise is the best way to get lost.
It's like chess. Simple rules. But then it takes alot to be a master.

Ye that's how I see currencies.
I divide it in 3:

- "Skepticism": 85% of the time. Not good enough for me. Not just trend following, even other strategies. Especially counter trend.
- Optimism: 14% of the time. Trend following but also anything else. When most pros are watching. Will buy falling knives, not sideways knives.
- Weeee: 1% of the time. Quick. Less than 24 hours.



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