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Sunday, March 07, 2021

Forex might actually become interesting soon

Forex might actually become interesting soon

Forex got nerfed hard in the 2008-2009 patch but it might be about to become overpowered.

0-1200 elo players still play it a lot as the result is the same no matter what: defeat.
It's super interesting to look at their positions on IG , FXCM, Oanda I think, myfxbook.

0-1200 elo traders keep going against the trend, and you can see the average winner of the 10% with trend being maybe 60 pips and average loser of 90% that are against the trend -300 pips.
What's super interesting is how there is barely any trend in this flat semi random market and consistently going against the trend like an idiot STILL LOSES MONEY.


Some examples of dead FX pairs

After 2011, USDCHF volatility dropped enormously, it was by far the lowest in 50 years.
There was almost more volatility under Bretton Woods.
And the price action of course just look at it, it is bad.

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EURUSD was also quite pointless but after getting smaller and smaller to the point of this disgusting trend down we had it rallied strongly and it might keep increasing in such volatility

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It is also very hard to predict moves, gurus say the opposite, all fx funds left but gurus know better sure.
You would need more leverage (risk) to get sizeable winners, which is bad, and you will never end up running a mega winner because they just don't exist at all.

Anyone that claims they predicted EURUSD direction & tops / bottoms in 2018-2019 is better than 100% of hedge funds and will easilly became a billionaire, so stop talking and show me the money if you're so good and not just lucky.

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Another one

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Delusional dreaming retail gamblers and their gurus might say "This is how markets work you have to adapt" (gosh this sounds so dumb why don't you jump in a volcan and adapt to no oxygen and 5000°C?) as well as "If it does not trend trade resistances reversal"

1- Moves are smaller and smaller anyway you get very little out of it, and you have to pay spreads, or comms (and spreads widen a lot)

2- Resistances are wide your entry to stop need to be very big for a small win

3- Where do you get out? Even if it reacts it will be very choppy and you never know when the reaction is over

4- It literally takes a few minutes to see this resistance BS does not work

Let's hear it
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And at this point the guru knows that:

1- People that look for "education" want to be "taught", not go check themselves, they won't bother analyse all this crap

2- People that know what they are doing are not going to waste up to hundreds of hours checking laborious and stupid troll stuff

3- People that know what they are doing also know that even if they do the grind, the guru will take a big dumb smile and claim "ah but you forgot to add the rsi" or some painfully dumb bs, this can go forever, plus the victims won't listen to you, etc, so pointless, I'd rather play chess against a pigeon

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No one can be a full forex speculator, it can only be something on the side at certain times.

I'm an FX trader but I post more about other markets, and keep taking trades in other areas more and more.

But maybe it will improve
"“I’m not expecting any real volatility spike, but it was so low for so long that the probability it increases is getting bigger,” said Andreas Koenig, head of global FX at Amundi Asset Management." Countertrend thinking "how low can it go", but maybe he is right. After markets contract they end up exploding and expanding.
https://ift.tt/3egqNWA

So this is what we have:

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What could happen soon adding volatility:
The ECB made a mistake of negative rates to boost the economy years ago which did not work but they won't admit their mistake.
It took years for Japan to give up. Maybe Europe gives up soon, or goes into deep negative rates. It will all go boom soon anyway.

France has the presidential elections in 2022 AND will be presiding Europe this will be the biggest event in more than 10 years and obviously impact the dead FX market so if they don't wake up now they will wake up next year!

Give me trends bigger than a ridiculous 2% that lasts for 10 days, give me reversals of more than a stupid 0.70%.

FX might not be glamourous champagne investing now, but if you start getting into it and studying now when it wakes up from his slumber you will have a big advantage versus even the pros that join in the following years.



from Trading Ideas https://ift.tt/3kWYbTx
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