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Monday, June 14, 2021

BTC/USD, XAG/USD: Technical Outlook, Edition #22 (14/06/21)

BTC/USD, XAG/USD: Technical Outlook, Edition #22 (14/06/21)

BTC/USD COINBASE:BTCUSD

The Crypto correction is over - BTC likely heading to USD 46K in the coming days or weeks.

Our Bitcoin bulls have been fighting for this bullish shift in market structure.

Now, all we need is for them to follow through on the re-test around USD 37 – 38K. If BTC /USD can flip that resistance into support, a further continuation up to USD 41K is likely. 

Speculators are leaving altcoins and converting back into bitcoin ; these are / BTC trading pairs. Big cap altcoins will slowly rise in their /USD pairs. However, their respective / BTC trading pair may suffer as Bitcoin Dominance ( BTC .D) grows. 

Let's take a deep dive into the H4 BTC /USD and BTC .D charts below… 

H4 BTC /USD:

snapshot

These are the two most significant charts in the cryptocurrency market right now. 

A confirmed bullish reversal requires two higher highs (HL) and two higher lows (HL). Therefore, depicted on the BTC /USD H4 is the ideal bullish scenario for Bitcoin to follow: 

An initial break up above resistance (higher high) returns to confirm a resistance/support flip (higher low) before uptrend continuation. 

Managing your risk is critical here

Stop losses moved up to breakeven = no capital lost. 

Come back again when there has been better confirmation of a bullish reversal or another better-looking trade set-up. 

There is no need to FOMO and allow Bitcoin to steer the market from here. 

We will look further into Bitcoin Dominance next ( BTC .D) and see why chasing altcoins now may be a potentially bad idea.

H4 BTC .D:
snapshot

A clear bullish breakout and now flirting with the .618 fib retracement zone

Closing above and flipping 45.80% bodes well for Bitcoin receiving more attention, but will the altcoins continue bleeding...?

As the dominance climbs, more speculators are leaving altcoins and converting back into bitcoin ; these are / BTC trading pairs

We want to see the crypto market cap growing, so fresh money is entering to confirm both a bullish sentiment and further growth expectations

If not, and if dominance continues to climb, then you're witnessing a possible exit pump. 

Demand for altcoins drops as Bitcoin's rise before our Market Makers become bears and leave Bitcoin to search for more conservative trades in additional asset classes. 

Call it sector rotation, and we believe it may be happening now… 

Once banks begin to taper (slow bond purchasing) and raise interest rates, there's a possibility cryptocurrency will experience another bear market that will last years according to the next halving cycle. 

More conservative markets would be; commodities , stocks, and eventually Forex when the interest rates rise.

Q has a fondness for the weekly Silver ( XAG/USD ) chart; look how beautiful this flag is coming along. 

Considering Bitcoin currently shares an inverse relationship with Gold and Silver , the recent rise is logical should an exit pump occur over the next few weeks as the big institutional players accumulate gold and silver to hedge against inflation .

When they are ready, their set-ups will form and break up (ideally) over the next few weeks. 

Be careful with long term crypto buying – don't HODL for too long. There's nothing wrong with putting ego aside and waiting for a better trade opportunity. 

BTC moves aggressively and traps dumb money. 

Once confirmation of a bullish re-test materialises, we could see a bounce as high as 46-48K USD - any higher, and that may be the bottom. 

BTC could see new highs... 

It's unlikely at the moment, although times are uncertain, and things can change very quickly.

Be safe and stick around for our daily updates as the situation unfolds.

See you again for the next update.

- q


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