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Tuesday, June 15, 2021

The US & EU terrible demographics: What to expect and solutions.

The US & EU terrible demographics: What to expect and solutions.

Japan, which today is the oldest country in the world, had a weird looking demographic "pyramid" 30 years ago, with a big bump in the 40s, there were 75% more japanese in their forties than 0-9 years old. What could possibly go wrong? Japan was the new superpower, everyone invested in Japan. And then it all collapsed. As usual it got so bad they actually ended up undervalued, and George Soros invested in the Nikkei before the rally a decade ago, probably using his large Forex knowledge to time the stock market. And yes he also bet on the Yen at that time and it worked very well.

So what happened the the Japanese economy? In the late 80s the japanese economy surpassed the Soviet Union! That was mind blowing to everybody. And in 1995 it grew to the size of Germany + France + UK. In 1995, after the stock market - which was in a gigantic bubble - crash, it was 5,500 billion usd big. The stock market crash is not what ended the Japanese economy! At the time the USA were 7,600 big, so the little island was ~75% the size of the US! They were so advanced , people thought they'd conquer the world with giant robots. They were really ahead of everybody.
And then the japanese started to retire, and as they aged demanded more and more support from the youth, more healthcare...

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Germany and the UK have grown their economies, the UK even got ahead of France which I'm sure has nothing to do with anti-business laws.
And Italy has already collapsed (since 2008), their brilliant solution was socialism, the downtrend will last a long while.
But the big most noticeable ones are the Americans. Now the USA economy is two and a half times bigger than Germany + France + UK!
How could a bunch of rednecks that love to fire guns in the air and mentally unstable drug addicts get this big?
Their population has grown unlike the west europeans, but not that much. And they're hitting the wall NOW.
A major explanation is their economy got way overheated (which had the secondary effect of creating lots of entitled recently born americans), in part because they attract the smartest migrants and all the foreign investments.

NO you can't make people work till they are 80. Past 50 like it or not it's all downhill from here. Here is the productivity chart:

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Migrants: This is something that Japan has not done. They did not take migrants in, and they also did not (net) import goods to "buy time".
West Europe and the United States have bet everything on importing migrants; which seems it might be a very profitable strategy: 0 cost to breed and raise workers, Africa for example has the charge of raising them, and Europe gets them entirely free once they reach working age.

The US Department of Agriculture reported that the cost to raise a child born in 2015 to 17 years old would be an estimated $233,610.
10 million migrants = 2,330 billion us dollar saved. And if they are qualified and 25 years you save university and the first years of gaining experience costs.

The EU had talks of importing 50 million migrants. At a cost of $200,000 per unit, since these are considered exchangeable pawns the word unit is adequate, that would be $10,000 billion saved! The foreign aid Africa has received for the past 70 years is estimated at around $1,400 billion. Muslim countries that provide many cheap workers obviously do not get anywhere near that amount. And I cannot tell how much money the west spends in anti-African propaganda - working on that negative "poor and violent Africa with no hope" image to push young africans to want to migrate to the west, also know as the second welfare objective (to keep them down and dependant rather than force them to build their own economies), the first one being obvious: "Keep dem kids alive and keep breeding, we want our workers!".

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The problem is... It is not working perfectly... You see, life is not a video game, and people are not interchangeable pawns. I'm not saying it doesn't or can't work I am just saying it is not working PERFECTLY. The west is facing more and more diversity issues just like Africa and Israel. And this everyone agrees on regardless of their politics, those on the left say it is because of systemic racism, and the other side say it's because people are different I guess. Just as long as we can all agree. Racism or not if you look at Yugoslavia they were the same race, culture, economy, history, and they still killed each other.

It is a difficult subject to write about since for some people if you do not say everything will work out great you are automatically an enemy.
So how do you even talk about it? You can't. Publicly. Just have to play dumb and act surprised.
Ye well I might have to pretend to be stupid but my money won't be acting surprised that I can tell you.
I am obviously not going to develop the subject. It may or may not be a viable solution, either was there are obstacles.


On the other side of the flying pancake on a giant turtle's back China is facing the same issue. The CCP was surprised to learn the awful demographic numbers a few weeks ago, and started a new 3 child policy as well as fighting feminists.
How could they possibly create a 1 child policy and never manage it? Seems unreal. But anyway, now they got a disgusting demographic pyramid, and it will take at best 25 years to fix.

China is not looking for migrants to support its aging population. So it would appear they are going to follow Japan?
NOPE. See, China has something very special: The USA & West Europe owe China A LOT. Africa owes them too. The world owes them trillions.
In theory they could just lay back, relax, and let the world work for them.
In practice they might have to use their military to get what is rightfully theirs.
But the USA, Germany etc have their own issues and can't really pay up... Will be a big big problem.

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I am not an expert, I invest in the short term in the currency markets, like every decent "specialist" I know and take an interest in about everything that gravitates around but is not exactly my activity, but I don't really get into it, I stay focus in my area.

If you want to know more about the subject, some people of whow the job it is - doesn't necessarily mean they are good at it or know more than me, but they may, at least they have researched the subject extensively - write about the subject. There are articles, "official" reports on the subject, as well as books.

An economist that was on the United Kingdom Monetary Policy Committee and an economist that was Managing Director at Morgan Stanley wrote a report available on the website of the Bank of International Settlement, and according to them big money does read what they publish:
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