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Saturday, July 10, 2021

Buy at the tops & sell the bottoms!

Buy at the tops & sell the bottoms!

BTC/USD COINBASE:BTCUSD

Richard Ney spoke about think of the market like a warehouse, the owners of the warehouse CM (composite man) needs to fill the building with inventory, they need to sell some as they acquire more - issuing news releases of their grand launch. But their whole objective is to buy at the wholesale rate & sell at retail prices.

Think of this in a simple chronology form;

Strong hands buy cheap and sell at a higher price – to the retail clients, willing to pay more. This is usually due to the retail buying the tops and selling the bottoms.
If you take a look at the CryptoQuant chart - replicated from their site, into @TradingView

snapshot

You will notice the drop off towards the end of Feb. this was in essence the buyers climax. I’ve had several people ask – why would the big boys bail at 40k? Again, you need to think of the wholesale/retail scenario. CM buys low and sells high, retail buy high and sell low.

If you apply some Elliott logic here, you will see we were at a weekly 3 & that was finished with a daily 5 – giving the need of a correction (in Warehouse terms) selling inventory, in trading lingo – it’s distribution.

Here I posted the map in March;
Bitcoin Roadmap - Elliott Monthly

As you can see it played out as expected.
snapshot

Let’s go back to the Wholesale logic by Mr Ney; This is by far the easiest way to think about it. The primary goal of composite man (the market maker) or in the warehouse owner. Is to make money. To do this, they acquire stock or BTC and fill their warehouse(fund).

In the accumulation phase, CM (Composite man) needs enough inventory to make it worthwhile, making demand – you will see positive news, attracting the retail to the store. The whole process is about supply and demand . Does he have enough supply for the demand?

The warehouse will not be filled with only one truck – it will take several months and multiple deliveries to accumulate enough stock/ BTC . Then the emphasis is put on mass marketing! Think a Musk tweet, positive news and so on! Attracting retail buyers – who now have confidence in the product on sale as it’s shot up recently. Supply seemingly limited and demand high!

As buyers buy – CM is selling as seen by the Blockfi wallet image above. Price driven up as supply becomes exhausted and demand is peaked!
Now what? – well Price is too much for CM to want to buy anything back at an ATH . He wants it back at a new fair value – wholesale price.

So, the best thing to do is – cause a little fear and doubt, a political statement or a tweet or two in today’s world. The media is basically yesterday’s news, tomorrow. But so many people buy into it and that allows for the puppeteering.

And this is known as the distribution phase. We are now at a 1,3 or 5 Elliott wave . Let’s go with only at 1 in Elliott terms. CM can’t frighten retail too much and needs to keep the dream alive. Or there would be no dumb money buying into the next rally. So, the distribution & re-accumulation phase often blends in the 2nd wave of an Elliott move. If you look inside, you will see the ABC type moves giving hope to retail and gathering a strong position to go again.

All CM is doing is filling the shelves in the warehouse. He continues to buy new inventory and sell the old (hedging) And once there’s enough supply to make a new campaign – off he goes, selling to the world.

If news is bad at the highs, retail suckers would not buy anymore & CM would be left carrying the weight. Instead, the news is good, knowing a drop is imminent. The same applies at the bottom, if news is good – then retail will be buying in preparation for a move up. CM knows how to balance these moves without showing his hand. It’s knowing that retail fools – will always try to catch the bottom and stay in until the top. And you wonder why it is that retail lose 75% of the time or more!

CM simply takes advantage of the retail’s fear and greed. I recently wrote another TradingView article on emotional analysis.
Emotional Analysis
This explains a little as to why Elliott , Wyckoff and Dow theory are still used today.

The logic from re-accumulation or Elliott 2 – goes on into 3, down to 4 and then up to 5. Before the cycle is completed and a new cycle starts. We cover this in more depth with the education. But I hope you get the general idea here.

Enjoy the rest of the weekend!

Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.


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