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Thursday, July 08, 2021

The Bulls aren't Quite Done Yet: Buy the dip to target 4370

The Bulls aren't Quite Done Yet: Buy the dip to target 4370

The 10-period linear regression line has crossed the 0.2,14-period Bollinger Band which is my preferred trade signal - together with the 5-period trailing Chaikin Money Flow Slope > 0.5. Go long from 4310. Target 4370.

Market Replay finds this type of crossover to be profitable 66% of the time since April 1, 2021 - despite rigid, rules-based order management. Why can't I upload code here? Pine Script...hmmm....something new to learn I guess. A discretionary approach could be better - or worse depending on your skills. Of the 4 trades I've posted using this system on /ES (linked below), 3 were profitable, and one would have been even more profitable but for a missed entry. My results for BTC and Gold have been more mixed. The one FOREX trade I attempted on the daily version of this system was successful ( NOK /USD).

In general, rules for closing this trade:

1. Price moves above the 2 STDV Upper BB and a price substitute (a 2 period linear regression line) re crosses downwards (take profits)
2. Price falls below the 2 STDV Lower BB.
3. Price crosses to the upside of the 1 STDV BB and the 10-period Regression line tries to re cross to the downside.
4. The 10 period regression line crosses below the 30 period regression line.

Upside target: 4370. How did we determine this?

The test of 4280 this morning expanded the 2 STDV Bollinger Band , so the upper band is around 4370. This should be the current upside of any move before a pause (to move higher) or a drop.

from TradingView Ideas
via gqrds

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