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Saturday, August 07, 2021

Dax week 31 - Analysis

Dax week 31 - Analysis

DAX 30 Cash CFD GLOBALPRIME:GER30

Dear Tradingviewer,

This week, I offer my analysis of the movements of $GER30 during the week and my outlook for next week.
Have nice reading and be pleased to comment if you want.

First, some warnings:
Please remember that you can have losses while trading.
Thus, always trade with a trading plan.
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So, what happened last week?

As anticipated, Monday was a selling day… Nevertheless, I was expecting a bigger fall. Then, the rest of the week was a constant rise pushed by the start of August. A pause occurred on Wednesday waiting for the ADP Non Farm Employment Change which was a good indicator for the rest of the week.

What did I do?

This week, I took short positions at several resistances and I am now waiting for a potential wave which I am expecting at the end of next week.

What are my perspectives for next week?

My perspective for the end of next week are also a range, I think :
- 25%: $GER30 finishes the week between 15600 and 15900;
- 15%: $GER30 reaches back in the range 15500 - 15600;
- 50%: $GER30 falls and stay around the green line;
- 10%: $GER30 falls under the green line (on the graph)


What to follow next week?

Globally (still the same):
- WARNING !! Variant Delta is spreading all around Europe, this will impact the market if the mitigation measure taken are judge not enough compare to the spreading;
- Inflation: the rise of petrol ($OIL to follow accurately) and other raw material are good indicators, even if $OIL fall a lot in the previous days.
- The US 10 years interest rates (which could also have an impact on $NSDQ100) are currently very low but are starting a new rise;
- The transaction volumes.

Day by day :
- Monday: German Trade Balance, Europe Sentix Investor Confidence and U.S. JOLTs Job Openings;
- Tuesday: ZEW Economic sentiment (Germany and Eurozone) and US productivity and labour costs ;
- ⚠️ Wednesday ⚠️ : Inflation day in Germany and US... moreover US Crude Oil ;
- Thursday: UK GDP, Eurozone Industrial Production, US initial Jobless Claim and OPEP report ;
- Friday : Trade Balance Eurozone and US Export Price Index.

I wish you a good trading week,
Please feel free to ask me questions, I will be glad to connect with you over the comments or by private messages.
Stay safe,
Alexandre



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