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Monday, August 02, 2021

JICPT|USD bouncing back from bull flag

JICPT|USD bouncing back from bull flag

Hello everyone. This is a follow-up post regard the one I shared on July 25th.

Back then, I come up with two possible price movement path, with one retesting the bull flag .

Today, the dollar index touched and zone and bounced back. It's very likely to go upside, giving trading opportunities on dollar pairs, e.g. EURUSD , GBPUSD .

It seems that the zone of 93.23-93.46 is a strong supply zone . Dollar didn't even touch it. After this retest, dollar may challenge the zone again.

By the way, forex traders should pay attention to massive fiscal stimulus plan by the US government which would result in sharp fall of the dollar index. If any big plan is approved, no matter how strong the structure looks, it'll be violated with no doubt.

The recent spread of delta strain around the world is a big blow to the optimist who believed the full-vaccination would save the world, however, the truth is that we're unable to terminate the virus in the short term. Pepel with two shot still get infected. If things are out of control again, central banks and governments may be forced to launch more stimulus package, likely fiscal packages, instead of monetary ones as the target rate is too low (0-0.25%). Pushing it down into the negative territory is harmful against the backdrop of the rising inflation .

In case like that, new wave of stimulus packages would boost the stock market and push down the dollar index . However, there won't be a happy ending. The bubble becomes bigger and bigger. it'll burst just like the ones happened before in the history. The question is when?

Give me a like if you're with me.

from TradingView Ideas
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